Tiers from three on down: the championship is over

Before we start our Texas talk, a quick Talladega chat. Let me begin by saying I love Talladega, it has always been one of my favorite stops on the circuit. When people ask me my favorite races to cover I've always said, "the night race at Bristol and any race at Talladega."

But things have changed. Too many crazy wrecks, too many torn-up race cars and too many fans hurt ... anything more than zero qualifies there. So what is the result of the craziness? What we watched Sunday. A race that was 90 percent single file.

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Single file for 90 percent of the race at ever-wild Talladega? What's going on? Bottom line, staying in line for most of a race at Talladega is the drivers' way of protesting. And who can blame them? As soon as they started to really race Sunday, both Ryan Newman and Mark Martin went upside down. As soon as they started to race at Talladega in the spring, Carl Edwards almost went into the stands. So why even race?

The fact is, the drivers cannot just not show up for a race at Talladega. Racing for the championship, sponsor commitments and everything but the on-track product forces them to race. But right now, if you took a poll and gave drivers the opportunity to skip a race, I would guarantee that they would pick one of the Talladega races. Mark Martin did when he went part time a few years ago (and probably wishes he would have last week).

So the drivers' way of showing their dislike for this style of racing, at this track, is that they simply don't race during the race. Single-file racing is their way of saying, "You know what, we don't like this. You put us in a narrow box? Fine, then we will just sit here and make it boring." When all 43 are on the same page, guess what? Drivers win.

Unfortunately, nobody can force them to do otherwise -- not the media, not the fans, not even NASCAR. The same single-file racing cannot be done at Daytona, however, the other restrictor plate track, because handling and the rough track will not allow the cars to stay single file for long periods of time. But Talladega is super smooth, super fast and handling doesn't mean a thing.

Unless someone can come up with a miracle solution that hasn't been thought of in 20-plus years of plate racing, for the foreseeable future expect Talladega races to be exactly like it was Sunday -- all single file until the last 20 laps when someone will have a big wreck and risk the chance of getting hurt. I'm sorry, that's not racing and it's not the drivers' faults.

TIER 1

Johnson

Jimmie Johnson (No Change)
Now it's over. Jimmie Johnson only needs to finish 10th or better in the final three races of the season to win his fourth consecutive title. Granted, there were three occasions where Johnson did not average a top-10 finish during a three-race stretch, but what is the real likelihood that while Johnson finishes out of the top-10 in three consecutive races, Mark Martin at the same time wins all three races? Yeah, not likely.

Texas was an odd race for Johnson in the spring. If you look at the final numbers he did finish second but it was struggle to get there. At one point during the race in the spring he called his car "evil." But Chad Knaus was able to figure out the car and get Johnson back into the top five.

How good is the 48 right now? Both their primary and their backup cars this weekend were driven from the pole to the win in their last starts. Johnson will use the car he dominated with at Dover a few weeks ago as his primary car at Texas -- and in case he needs it, his back up is the car he won with at Charlotte (scheduled to be used as the primary at Homestead). That's crazy. But to be honest, don't expect great things out of the 48 team in these final three races. Johnson and Knaus know where they need to finish. They won't push it much harder than they need to ... and why should they?

TIER 2

There is nobody in Tier 2 any longer -- this is a one-man show for the next three weeks.

TIER 3

Martin

Gordon

Montoya

Stewart

Mark Martin (-2)
Mark Martin went into Talladega with about as positive of an attitude as I have ever seen. It looked like a good move until he flipped during the green-white-checkered finish, producing his first DNF since ... Talladega in the spring, of course.

For Martin's prospects at Texas, the intermediate tracks have been very hit and miss this season. At Charlotte a few weeks ago Martin was a step behind Johnson all weekend. But in the grand scheme of things, Martin really is no longer racing Johnson. If you are Martin and crew chief Alan Gustafson the focus now turns to beating the 42, 24 and 14. If Martin can finish second in points it will not only be a big payday but it will be the fifth time in his career he has been able to do so. That's an admirable accomplishment, albeit not the reason Martin came back to full-time competition.

Jeff Gordon (-1)
Much is the same for Jeff Gordon, who now finds himself trying to catch a different teammate -- Mark Martin for second place. Oddly enough for Gordon, if he can finish second it would be just the third time in his career he's done so. Of the three remaining tracks, Texas and Homestead are Gordon's best chances to gain on Martin. Martin will no doubt have the edge at Phoenix but when it comes to intermediate tracks the 24 team has been stellar this season. In the 12 intermediate track races this season, Gordon has 11 top-10 finishes and seven second-place finishes. Gordon is my overall favorite to win the race this weekend; he has a very good chance to gain some points on Martin.

Juan Montoya (-1)
When I talked with Juan Montoya a few weeks ago about the Charlotte race he was quick to remind me he and Denny Hamlin were the only guys who were able to keep up with Jimmie Johnson. Just too bad that Montoya was involved in a wreck and Hamlin lost an engine, otherwise we might have had a race. Watch out for Montoya this weekend, he might just get his first oval track win. The strength of the 42 team this season has been at this type of track. No matter what happens at Texas for Montoya, this Chase has gone much better than anyone thought, so the "win" if you will already has happened.

Tony Stewart (-1)
For Tony Stewart the Chase has been filled with highs and lows, flips and spins. Stewart certainly could use the extra cash he will make from his Chase earnings to build a few more race cars after last weekend. Obviously, Stewart would like to build some momentum in these final three races and finish in the final top five of the championship standings, something he has not done, believe it or not, since his championship year of 2005. Texas, though, does not provide Stewart's best opportunity to gain points on Martin and Gordon; that will come next week at Phoenix. For this week, a solid top-10 to keep the 14 team in the top five will suffice.

TIER 4

Hamlin

Busch

Biffle

Newman

Kahne

Denny Hamlin (-1)
Once again in the Chase, Denny Hamlin probably had the best car last week but a mechanical problem took him out of the race. Hamlin has pretty much been the strongest competition for the 48 team in the Chase but after going the entire regular season with just one DNF, they have managed to ring up three of those in the past four races. Talk about poor timing. Once again this week, don't be surprised if Hamlin is the guy to beat. He is brining the car that ran so well at Charlotte a few weeks ago until the engine let go. When this team strings together 10 consecutive races without problems in the Chase (and it will happen), they can and likely will win a championship.

Kurt Busch (-1)
Depsite two early accidents it looked like Kurt Busch might be able to rally for a top-10 finish at Talladega, until his third accident of the day, which finally did in the 2 team. The question I am getting all of the time about the 2 team is, why have they not hired their 2010 crew chief yet? Simple answer: They don't know who they want. Penske is full of engineers and that likely is the direction management would like to head in hiring a new front man. Meanwhile, Busch would rather have a race-proven, common-sense head man. Unless they can convince Steve Addington to leave Joe Gibbs Racing, don't expect a new hire with this team in the next three weeks.

Greg Biffle (No Change)
To be honest, Greg Biffle should have one win at least this season and that should have come at Texas in the spring. Biffle probably had the best car at the end but on the last stop of the day, his crew was very slow -- he had to rally to finish third. This time around Biffle is bringing the car he led the most laps and finished third with at Kansas a few weeks ago. This could be a good weekend, at one of his best tracks.

Carl Edwards (No Change)
This time last year Carl Edwards was trading wins with Jimmie Johnson, battling for the championship. After this race last year, Edwards had two wins in the Chase. So far in 2009, Edwards has two top-10s. What a difference a year makes. It's a hard adjustment when you go from expecting to win to wishing you could finish in the top 10.

Ryan Newman (No Change)
To the surprise of many, the Chase was actually going pretty well for Ryan Newman until last week at Talladega. I'm sure Newman is not really looking forward to climbing into the car on Friday at one of the fastest tracks on the circuit. At least there's something for which to look forward. The intermediate tracks have been very solid for the 39 team this season. A nice top-10 finish this weekend without incident would do wonders for Newman.

Kasey Kahne (No Change)
Kasey Kahne was the surprise of Talladega. His second-place finish was just his second career top-10 at Talladega. Kahne could surprise once again this weekend. In fact, Texas may be Kahne's best shot at a win in the remaining races of 2009. Kahne always has been strong at this type of track. Don't be surprised to see the 9 up front again this weekend.

Brian Vickers (No Change)
Seven races into the Chase. Zero top-10s.

Three weeks until vacation.

The opinions expressed are solely those of the writer.

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